Spain is already experiencing a rebound in the pandemic that affects numerous autonomous communities. Carolina Darias herself, Minister of Health, recognized it on Sunday; But it is also that it is not an isolated phenomenon but comes after Germany announced a four-week partial confinement and France began to study a national closure. After all, as the WHO pointed out last week, Europe accounts for almost half of the 2.8 million new cases of coronaviruses reported worldwide.
Spain on the brink of the fourth wave, in a single graph
There is much to be said about the risk that Spain will enter a new wave of the pandemic, the fourth. However, before going into detail, It is worth looking at the epidemiological situation of the country in a graphical view. After all, often one or by very controlled environments such as Spanish residences) that vaccination can bend the contagion curve; it can bring down the pandemic.
Therefore, as the percentages of immunized people grow, the expectation that the “fourth wave” will be similar to the previous ones disappears. We have learned enough about the virus to know that we have tools to control the exponential growth of cases and, If the population at risk is protected, it is reasonable to think that the next wave will be something very different from the previous ones.: there will be less hospital saturation, fewer deaths, less need for radical measures that paralyze the social and economic metabolism. Or so we hope.
The promise of true normality. Or what is similar, the end of the pandemic. Because, with all the doubts that remain on the table (the new variants, the institutional problems or the economic crisis), the efficacy of the vaccines has managed to draw a clear horizon for the end of the pandemic. It is true that, as the WHO said, in the world the end will be delayed (even three or four more years), but the uncertainties have been reduced to a practical question: how many waves will arrive before we are ready?
A rebound that may come too soon. Because let’s remember that the ministry hopes to finish vaccinating those over 80 years of age “in the coming weeks.” In other words, despite the relative optimism derived from the uneven progress of the vaccination campaign in the country, we have a good part of the population at risk that has not yet been vaccinated. And no, the millions of vaccines that we expect in the coming weeks do not seem to be able to close this one, there are reasons to think that spring brings certain social practices that will act as a natural brake on the spread of the virus.
In short, once again we are faced with an upturn in cases without really knowing what awaits us and, perhaps worse, not knowing if we have learned what we need of all the previous waves.