We have been saying for months that spring is essential to “win the game” against the virus. We have been announcing for weeks that more vaccines will be received in April alone than in all previous months. We have been saying for days that the fourth wave is beginning to knock on the country’s door. So today, on the eve of what seems like an inevitable Easter break, the key question seems to be “How are we doing, how do we get to this (still theoretical) turning point?”
Above all, with regard to the central theme of 2021: the speed of vaccination, the percentage of immunized that a society has and, of course, the vaccine stocks. Because make no mistake, as has been repeated since almost the beginning of the pandemic, the end of this global nightmare can only be sustained on the basis of vaccines. So that, How do we get to the Easter break?
Record vaccination figures, but not enough
The current average is almost 200,000 doses per day. I’m going to stop for a moment. Less than a month ago, Spain shattered all vaccination records so far, exceeding 110,000 doses a day. As of today, and despite all the problems that we have dragged along with the delays and vaccination controversies, we have already doubled that figure. And this should be just the beginning.
Fundamentally, because we need it. Those 200,000 doses are still a long way from allowing us to achieve the objective of the Government and the European Union. In fact, to vaccinate 70% of adult Spaniards at the beginning of summer we need to double that amount and reach 440,000 doses. However, if all goes well, with 330,000 we could meet the target before October.
Could we do better?
With seven communities at high or very high risk and the fourth wave growing across Europe, the first question that comes to mind is whether we can take advantage of the vaccines that we have and have not yet. It makes sense: at the beginning of the vaccination campaign we used only 12% of the available vaccines. The problem is that this is no longer an option.
That 12% is an anecdote. During most of the campaign we have been very effective in putting everything that came and inoculating more than 90% of the available doses. In fact, the variations that can be seen in the graph above are due to the arrival of new shipments of vaccines. That is, there is only one viable solution to vaccinate quickly: get more vaccines.
Waiting for vaccines
So one way or another what we need are more vaccines. In fact, it is the ability to get more vaccines per capita that makes the biggest difference between countries when we compare their vaccination rates. Until recently, this left us in a difficult situation because there were no clear forecasts about what was to come.
However, the “vaccine crisis” has led the European Union to clarify the calendars and that allows us to estimate what awaits us. In the graph above, we have incorporated both the vaccines received and those to be received. The good news is that you can getThe bad news is that it won’t be easy. We’d better use the break to gain momentum.
Image | Hospital Clinic